“கான மயிலாட கணà¯à®Ÿà®¿à®°à¯à®¨à¯à®¤ வானà¯à®•à¯‹à®´à®¿ தானà¯à®®à¯ தம௠பொலà¯à®²à®¾ சிறகினை விரிதà¯à®¤à¯ ஆடியத௠போல௔ ஆகிவிடà¯à®®à®¾ - this is probably the most apt apprehension of what could happen to Rajini if he were to plunge into politics without realising its pitfalls, especially being, as Seeman calls him, an “outsider”. There are any number of cine stars in Tamil Nadu who have taken the plunge and ultimately singed themselves very badly.
“கான மயிலாட கணà¯à®Ÿà®¿à®°à¯à®¨à¯à®¤ வானà¯à®•à¯‹à®´à®¿ தானà¯à®®à¯ தம௠பொலà¯à®²à®¾ சிறகினை விரிதà¯à®¤à¯ ஆடியத௠போல௔ ஆகிவிடà¯à®®à®¾ - this is probably the most apt apprehension of what could happen to Rajini if he were to plunge into politics without realising its pitfalls, especially being, as Seeman calls him, an “outsider”. There are any number of cine stars in Tamil Nadu who have taken the plunge and ultimately singed themselves very badly.
The media that has been catapulting him to skies might tear into him in no time if he were to take a single step wrong.
For instance, it is very difficult for him to come out with any concrete opinion on the Cauvery issue that has been causing immense friction between Tamil Nadu and Karnataka. Just the Interim Award of the Cauvery Waters Tribunal in 1991 triggered a mini-partition which threw thousands of Tamilian families out of Karnataka and I had the misfortune of covering the pathetic people’s heart-rending conditions in their own country.
While Tamil Nadu has documentary evidence for demanding a major share in Cauvery waters, Karnataka is unwilling to accede to the pacts of 1892 and also 1924 signed under the British rule. It is in no mood to even comply with the Tribunal ruling (which actually amounts to that of the Apex Court itself).
None of our great champions of democracy like P. Chidambaram, G.K. Vasan, Mani Shankar Aiyar, K.V. Thangkabaalu, et al., can manage to persuade their good friend Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah to part with even a few cusecs of water. Are all these people not party to the nefarious design of the Manmohan Singh Government to delay even gazetting of the Tribunal’s Final Award? The only Tamil Congress leader who was wedded to the issue emotionally was Vazhappadi K.Ramamurthy who resigned from the Union Council of Ministers. Even now no Congress leader from TN will have the gumption to demand water from the Cauvery because Congress is not only in power in Karnataka at present but also it is one State which might return the party to power thus saving the face of young and just-born Rahul Gandhi. Neither will Rahul speak about the Cauvery issue.
The champions of the other major national party, which was in power in Karnataka, which is hankering for the same in a couple of months from now, the BJP, are no better.
Our own Tamilian woman Minister, born in Madurai, studied in Tiruchi, married in Andhra Pradesh and elected as Rajya Sabha MP from Karnataka, Madam Nirmala Sitharaman, used to be furious with me whenever I used to remind her that it was her party (BJP) which was in power in Karnataka for long and which has been ruthlessly denying water to the parched lands of the delta. No BJP Minister will have the guts to demand water from Karnataka. Does Dr. Subramanian Swamy from Shozhavandhan know this?
I still remember the day when former Prime Minister Atal Behari Vajpayee, who was in the opposition, told me at Hosur that he has a formula to solve the Cauvery imbroglio. Now it is close to 20 years and he has also spent a full term as Prime Minister. It is his party which is now in power at the Centre and hopes to get re-elected in 2019 as well. But the Modi Government has no time or inclination to form a Cauvery Water Management Board because Karnataka is dead against the proposition. Karnataka knows while it would lead to rational distribution of water, it would lose its autonomy over the river water.
While both the major national parties have failed Tamil Nadu even to the level of the granary of South India becoming just drainage of Karnataka, how is the Karnataka-born Maharashtrian actor, who harbours the dreams of becoming the Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu, going to handle the issue.
This is one issue that is going to stump him. Every regional party, including the DMK and the AIADMK, would try to brand him (at least surreptitiously) as a Kannadiga. And this is a spot Rajini cannot afford to do away with. He has earlier explained that 40 lakh Tamils in Karnataka would be affected if he were to say something about it. However, Jayalalithaa, in spite of being a Kannadiga, could take a very bold stand very easily by being a strident critic of Karnataka and even going on fast demanding justice in Cauvery issue.
Mercifully, India does not have a mature democracy like the US wherein the rivals for Presidency will have to engage themselves in a nationally-televised debate on multifarious subjects. Besides, people there vote based on what is articulated by the contenders for the throne. And of course, their policies. Hence, when “Annaism” is the profound concept of the AIADMK for which MGR never gave any convincing and rational explanation and still won hands down thrice, (most of his speeches have rarely been understood even by the journalist tribe including myself), the “spiritual politics” espoused by Rajini (whatever it may mean) can be interpreted in any number of ways. While Rajini chose to explain it away as governance based on “dharma and equity”, he can as well ask the people of Tamil Nadu to be ready for a “Ram Rajya”. This can strike a chord among the faithful also.
After all, when Congressmen keep on ululating about “Kamaraj rule” (regarding which they never had any sincerity) and the AIADMK leaders “Amma rule” (what it means I don’t know because what emerged most concretely from Amma rule was the Mannargudi family alone), what is wrong in now Rajini going in for “Ram rajya”?
There is no doubt in my mind that the entry of superstar Rajinikanth marks a tectonic shift in Tamil Nadu political scenario and it is likely to hurt several existing and well-entrenched players.
There is every possibility that the AIADMK, which is facing disintegration thanks to its internecine squabbles, might contribute substantial number of its votes to Rajini. DMK, which has no specific agenda because gone are the days of emotive potboiler like Hindi imposition or any type of linguistic and parochial issues, might also suffer quite a bit. People are no fools to fall for any of its fanciful ideas on State autonomy because they know full well that it would mortgage its Tamilian pride whenever the loaves of fishes of office go to “one particular” family and its kith and kin.They know DMK for the past 50 years. The RK Nagar debacle is a clear evidence of how even its own cadres have deserted it.
All other parties are totally confused. The 4-party front led by Vaiko is in disarray. PMK prince Anbumani Ramadoss is on the verge of tears when Tamils vote in lakhs for Oviya and not him. DMDK is another family party where the leader is hardly clear about what he does.
Rajini has fans in every party including the anti-cinema party like the PMK. And not a single village in Tamil Nadu is without his fan club. How effectively he is going to marshal the forces remains to be seen. And he would be judged by the integrity of the lieutenants that he chooses.
But one thing is certain. He doesn’t often put his foot in the mouth like his rival Kamal. Rajini is far more sober and looks to tread very carefully.
Till he announces the name of his party and its so called “principles and policies”, his honeymoon with the media and even the other parties would continue.
I firmly believe that he would not contest in the Lok Sabha elections in 2019 and skip it as he has announced with regard to the local body polls.
Once the Assembly elections are announced, may be in 2020/2021, then the “suya roopam” (true face) of several leaders would be out in the open.
It is too early to talk about how well he will be able to govern? First let him set his house in order.